The IIT-Kanpur predicts, no 4th Wave as rise in cases not driven by new variants

By Our Special Correspondent

Will the IIT-Kanpur prediction about the fourth wave hitting India on June 22 come true? Although India has registered 84,000 Covid-19 cases in two weeks, experts say a new variant will be found that will lead to the next wave.

The highest number of latest cases was reported from seven states, followed by Kerala with the highest number of deaths, followed by Maharashtra and Delhi. Karnataka, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are the other states with the highest number of cases.

According to Dr. Sameeran Panda, Additional Director General of ICMR and its Head of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases, the increase over the past 14 days cannot be described as the fourth wave. Panda said cases were being reported in only a few districts in some states, emphasizing that Spike was not a "phenomenon unique to the whole country". However, he said it would depend a lot on whether the new variant would cause a surge or not.

"Only if we identify a new variant with the ability to escape immunity and cause serious disease can we consider it the fourth wave. The good thing is, we have not yet seen any health system burden," Panda said.

Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, co-chairman of IMA's Covid-19 task force, said the increase in numbers was small as no new variant had been found so far. IIT-Kanpur researchers predict that the fourth wave of February will begin on June 22 and peak on August 23, ending on October 24.