Azad exit likely to benefit BJP in upcoming J&K polls

By Our Special Correspondent

Veteran politician Ghulam Nabi Azad's decision to quit the Congress party and float his own party to contest the upcoming assembly elections in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir may give the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an electoral advantage in the Jammu region.

Jammu-based political analyst Rekha Chaudhary opined that Azad's exit from the Congress and his own party's entry into the constituency in UT will certainly tip the equation in favor of the BJP, especially in the Jammu region.

BJP eyeing to win most of the 43 Assembly seats allotted to the Jammu region in delimitation, she said splitting the Congress vote bank would be an added advantage for the saffron party.

In 2014, BJP won 25 assembly seats from Jammu region which has 37 assembly segments. After the abrogation of Article 370 and the delimitation exercise, the assembly seats in J&K increased from 83 to 90, with 43 seats in Jammu and 47 seats in Kashmir.

Another political observer echoed Choudhary, saying the Azad Party's entry would further fracture the Congress and secular votes in the Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal region comprising Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban and the border districts of Poonch and Rajouri.

“The BJP was expected to do well in the core Jammu and border districts of Kathua, Reasi, Samba and Udhampur, but it would have been difficult for the BJP to win seats in the Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal. But now the situation is likely to change at the field level as the secular votes are further fragmented and the BJP vote bank remains intact.

A senior Congress leader also admitted that leaving the Azad Congress and forming a new party would definitely benefit the Kashayaya Party in some seats in the Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal region.

He said that votes in Congress strongholds in Jammu region will now be split between Congress and Azad parties, which will benefit BJP.

In the Valley, he said, there will be no impact as the politics of Kashmir is different from that of Jammu, especially after the abrogation of Article 370, which has become more severe.

Sensing the poll advantage, the BJP leader said the exit of a leader of Azad's stature from the Congress after 50 years of association would definitely have some impact on the field. "Congress leaders are expected to leave the party and join other parties or start their own parties when possible in the case of Azad, the Congress vote bank will be fragmented and this will definitely benefit us in some areas," he said.

Before the Azad episode, the BJP had hoped to form a government with like-minded individuals and parties, winning 35 of the 43 seats in the Jammu region and a few seats in Kashmir. Now BJP is confident that it will win some more seats in Jammu region.